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     COMMENTS: Iraq & Pak al-Qaeda Angles

The follow-up to yesterday's National Intelligence Estimate about the resurgence of the al-Qaeda network was Story of the Day--despite the fact that NBC almost completely ignored it. Both ABC and CBS covered the implications in both Pakistan and Iraq. ABC led with the prospects of US special forces mounting a commando raid on the tribal zones of Pakistan, with or without Islamabad's permission. CBS chose not to lead with al-Qaeda, opting for the successful filibuster in the Senate to block a proposal to withdraw troops for Iraq. The big in-house news at NBC was the death at age 67 of Wayne Downing, the retired general who served as a military analyst for the network. However NBC's lead was the deadly crash at the airport in Sao Paulo.

"There are some who are questioning the timing" of the al-Qaeda news, ABC's Martha Raddatz (subscription required) observed, after the White House made "a full-blown presentation" of the arrest in Mosul of Khalid al-Mashadani, the alleged go-between between Ayman al-Zawahiri in Pakistan and abu-Ayyub al-Masri, the Egyptian exile who reputedly leads the network's guerrillas in Iraq. Raddatz raised the suspicions because yesterday's "devastating intelligence report" had put pressure on the White House to show progress--and because the arrest had actually been made two weeks ago but kept secret since then.

From Baghdad, CBS' Allen Pizzey pointed out that the arrest of al-Mashadani had disposed of another al-Qaeda leader, abu-Omar al-Baghdadi. That is because, according to Gen Kevin Bergner, al-Baghdadi does not exist: he was created by an actor for online propaganda audio messages and "even the so-called Islamic State of Iraq, which al-Baghdadi supposedly headed, only existed in cyberspace." Pizzey told us that the fake al-Baghdadi was the voice that coined the famous phrase: "If Afghanistan was a school for terrorism then Iraq is a university." He should also have reminded us that his colleague Sheila MacVicar used that very fabricated soundbite last month to illustrate her report on the danger of Iraq-trained militants infiltrating Europe. How much of the rest of MacVicar's scary report relied on imaginary terrorists?

For ABC's lead story, Brian Ross' unnamed sources insisted that infiltration is alive and well--not from Iraq but from Pakistan's North West Frontier: "Hundreds of terrorists have been trained and dispatched for attacks against the United States and Europe," Ross has been informed. "The options for the US military in this area are limited," Ross summarized, checking off just two. A large operation--"to deny the safe haven"--is not possible: that would take "a massive and sustained military action that only the Pakistani army could accomplish." A smaller one--"a pinpoint strike if there was hard intelligence on the location of Osama bin Laden or top deputies"--has not been ruled out.

Even the pinpoint strike is unacceptable in Islamabad, reported CBS' Richard Roth from London. "Pakistan insists that it will never allow in foreign troops." As for the larger military attack on that "rugged terrain where power rests with local tribes--unable to control the region Pakistan has tried to isolate it." And it is that policy that the Bush Administration, with the promise of $750m in aid, is pressuring President Pervez Musharraf to reverse with a renewed military offensive.

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