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The Republican race finds John McCain "well positioned to win several key states" in the northeast, according to ABC's Ron Claiborne (embargoed link). In response, ABC's John Berman (at the tail of the Claiborne videostream) found Mitt Romney relying on "his 3C strategy"--a "respectable finish" in California; trying to "fan the flames of that conservative backlash" against McCain; and relying on "his money and superior organization" in those states holding caucuses not primary elections. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell summarized the Republican contest thus: "Who is the most credible conservative?" She found Romney playing "that word association game," repeatedly linking McCain with Rodham Clinton.
For political analysis, ABC's George Stephanopoulos (no link) again focused on geography and NBC's Tim Russert again on voting blocs. For Russert, the impact of the "prairie fire" in opposition to McCain from conservative radio talkshow hosts is key. If they are persuasive with the base, Romney stays alive; if enough conservatives support McCain, he wins the nomination. Stephanopoulos told us to look at the winner-take-all states of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Arizona. If McCain wins there and picks up enough elsewhere to end the night with a 250 lead in the delegate count, then it "would probably be almost insurmountable." A lead smaller than 200 delegates keeps Romney in the race.
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