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Meanwhile back on the campaign trail, CBS had Nancy Cordes lead off its newscast with its own national opinion poll, even though we all know that Presidential elections are decided state-by-state in the Electoral College. So CBS followed up with a computer simulation for Jeff Greenfield that applied a conservative 5% Barack Obama lead (the networks' national poll had the gap at 9%) to its model of the states. Greenfield announced that Obama's current lead amounts to 302-236 in the college, even without assigning him an edge in the statistically tied states of Florida, Ohio and Indiana. McCain has less than two weeks to redress his deficit, CBS' Greenfield suggested: "History says that by mid-October preferences tend to be locked into place," before he second-guessed history, "but this is a year when, I think, you have to throw out all the other historical models." Greenfield did not say why.
ABC's George Stephanopoulos, too, calculated that Obama's current status accounted for at least 270 Electoral College votes. He counted three recent successes for the Democrat: a "steadier hand" in the fiscal crisis; a win in last week's debate; and Sarah Palin turning into "a bit of a drag" on John McCain's popularity.
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