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ABC's Ron Claiborne (no link) was in Florida where both candidates were campaigning. He noted that the Sunshine State was one Barack Obama "can afford to lose. He still has other paths to win this election." But for John McCain, "if he does not win Florida it is going to be tough for him." Not just Florida, Chip Reid added on CBS. McCain must win all four of the big states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida. Reid performed that glass-half-full experiment with a pollster's margin of error to show that a 48%-41% lead for Obama--plus or minus 4%--could mean a "virtual tie" of 44%-45%. "There is a flip side," Reid shrugged. It could also mean a 52%-37% landslide.
Then CBS had Jeff Greenfield follow up with an Electoral College map that showed Obama with a "commanding lead" in enough states to amass the 270 votes he needs. For McCain to win, he would have to hold all of states that voted for George Bush in 2004--except for Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico--and turn over the blue Pennsylvania too. "I am running out of cliches," Greenfield complained. "He has to throw the Hail Mary. He has to hole out from the bunker. He has to convert the 7-10 split."
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