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"Predicting national trends from off-year elections is something like predicting the World Series winner from spring training," shrugged CBS' Jeff Greenfield, before he tried to do it anyway. In the gubernatorial races, he noted that Democrats are relying on a big turnout from the demographic groups--young voters and African-Americans--that helped Barack Obama win the General Election: "It is a faint hope." In New York City, he pointed to money--incumbent Michael Bloomberg has outspent his opponent by a 13-to-1 ratio--as the key factor: "Bloomberg is expected to cruise to a third term." And in the House race in upstate New York, "a Conservative victory will likely embolden the right to challenge moderate Republicans across the nation in primaries."
These being national newscasts, all three networks sought the national angle. "Even though President Obama was not on the ballot, his presence was felt," opined NBC's Chuck Todd from the White House while Jake Tapper at ABC repeated the spin from White House aides that "this is no way a referendum on President Obama." On CBS, Face the Nation anchor Bob Schieffer (at the tail of the Greenfield videostream) described himself as "not one who thinks that local candidates are ever helped out much by national candidates who come in." NBC's Todd looked at early exit poll data from Virginia, indicating that Obama's base of support from 2008 was sitting this vote out. He called it an "irony" that "we talked about whether this is a referendum on the President or not; maybe Democrats needed it to be a referendum on the President."
ABC selected a pair of unusual frontrunners in the mayoral races. Steve Osunsami introduced us to Mary Norwood from "old money" Atlanta, who may become the city's first white mayor in a generation. And check out the hilarious reaction of Houston mayoral candidate Annise Parker to Ryan Owens (at the tail of the Osunsami videostream). "The impression is you do not like to talk about your personal life. You do not want to talk about your being a lesbian." Parker was literally dumbfounded.
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