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The results of the off-year elections were the Story of the Day. The headline was Republican success in Virginia and New Jersey. The governor of both states had been a Democrat: GOPer Robert McDonnell won an open seat in the former; Chris Christie defeated incumbent Jon Corzine in the latter. ABC and NBC both led with the voting. CBS chose the discovery of a charnel house in a Cleveland neighborhood, with the remains of eleven murdered women.

Nate Silver, the Politics Done Right blogger at 538.com, complains about analysts who account for electoral changeovers with the explanation that the victorious side won over independent voters. "It is a lot like saying: 'The Yankees won Game Six last night because they scored more runs than the Phillies.'" All elections are won by persuading persuadable voters, he argues, and by definition, they tend to be registered independents.

Silver lists Republican strategist Karl Rove and Washington Post writers and Rep Jim Cooper (D-TN) as offenders, offering "what passes for analysis." The nightly newscasts offer further fodder: "Crucial independents flocked to the Republicans"--ABC's John Berman…"Republicans won the independent vote by a wide margin"--NBC's Chuck Todd…"The striking finding is the dramatic move of independents to the Republicans"--CBS' Jeff Greenfield.

Admittedly, there were other explanations for the Democrats' losses, what NBC's Todd called the party's "first bad November election night since 2004." ABC's George Stephanopoulos (at the tail of the Jake Tapper videostream) generalized that "in hard times the economy is always the #1 issue and voters almost always punish the party that is in." ABC's Berman pointed to a lack of enthusiasm among Barack Obama's base: "Younger voters, the President's strongest bloc, stayed home." On CBS, Bob Schieffer (at the tail of the Greenfield videostream) focused on Virginia, where Obama had prevailed in 2008 with an urban-suburban vote in the northern suburbs and a heavy black turnout: "So what did the Democrats do? They run someone for Governor who is a rural candidate, little known in northern Virginia, who could not seem to connect with African-American voters." As for New Jersey, Corzine was "just so unpopular."

By the way, the night was not a clean sweep for the GOP. ABC's Congressional correspondent Jonathan Karl (in the middle of the Tapper videostream) pointed out that Democrats prevailed in the two special elections for empty House seats.

Andrew Tyndall 11/6/09 2:51:50 pm

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